Kiatnakin Phatra Securities expects Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS) to post a potential record quarterly core profit of THB 4.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher Thai and international patient revenue.
The brokerage maintained its “Buy” rating and THB 23.50 target price, forecasting a turnaround from a 7% year-on-year earnings decline in the first half of 2026 to strong growth in the second half.
Thai patient revenue is projected to rise 6 – 7% YoY in the third quarter, supported by the influenza outbreak against a low comparison base, as the previous year’s outbreak occurred in the fourth quarter.
International patient revenue is expected to increase around 10% YoY, driven by patients from Myanmar, the United States and Bangladesh. Middle Eastern patient revenue is forecast to fall 5 – 10% YoY amid the regional conflict, improving from a 24% decline in the second quarter. Cambodian patient revenue is expected to decrease around 30% YoY, compared with previous declines of 70 – 80%.
Excluding Middle Eastern and Cambodian patients, international patient revenue is projected to grow 12 – 14% YoY.
Overall, Kiatnakin forecasts third-quarter revenue growth of 7% and an EBITDA margin of 25.4%, up 0.2 percentage points YoY. Its core profit estimate would surpass BDMS’s existing quarterly record of THB 4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
The brokerage acknowledged market concerns that third-quarter strength could be largely influenza-driven, with revenue growth potentially slowing once the outbreak subsides.
However, Department of Disease Control data cited in the research showed influenza cases rose only 3% YoY in the third quarter of 2026 and remained 24% below the third quarter of 2024 level. Despite this, Thai patient revenue is expected to reach a record THB 21.4 billion, 6 – 7% above both third-quarter 2024 and 2025 levels.
Kiatnakin attributed the increase to higher-intensity cases, which it expects to continue supporting revenue growth.
For the fourth quarter of 2026, the brokerage forecasts Thai patient revenue growth of 3 – 5% despite a high base, while international patient revenue should maintain double-digit growth. A normalization in Middle Eastern and Cambodian patient flows could provide further upside.
BDMS also recorded THB 416 million in one-off expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025, supporting the brokerage’s forecast for double-digit profit growth in the corresponding 2026 quarter.
Kiatnakin described BDMS’s valuation as attractive at 19x estimated 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, compared with a regional peer average of 29 times.
