KGI Securities (Thailand) expects Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) to report a 3Q26 net profit of THB 8.9 billion, an increase of 23% YoY but a decline of 28% QoQ. Core profit is projected at THB 8.8 billion, up 21% YoY but down 16% QoQ. For the first nine months of 2026, core profit is estimated at THB 29 billion, up 45% YoY and accounting for 82% of KGI’s earlier full-year forecast.
The sequential decline is attributed to weaker margins in the SPP segment, seasonally softer performance from IPP, and a significant drop in dividend income from Kasikornbank (KBANK) to THB 480 million, compared to THB 2.8 billion in 2Q26. These factors more than offset the stronger seasonal performance from the Gulf-Gunkul JV wind farms and the absence of 2Q26 restructuring costs.
The YoY profit growth, on the other hand, is supported by a strong contribution from Advanced Info Service (ADVANC), full-year contributions from renewable capacity, and better results from the Jackson project in the U.S.
KGI has raised GULF’s earnings forecasts for 2026-28, with upgrades of 5%, 0.7%, and 0.5%, mainly due to higher other income in 2026 and a strengthened ADVANC outlook for the subsequent years. For 4Q26, core profit is expected to fall QoQ due to seasonal factors, the absence of KBANK’s dividend, and weaker SPP margins, but to rise YoY thanks to ADVANC’s growth and the ramp-up of renewable projects, as well as the Jackson project.
According to the brokerage, long-term growth prospects are underpinned by the data center business, direct power purchase agreements, and the government’s Power Development Plan 2026. Latent DC demand of 2–3GW exceeds GULF’s 1–2GW target, and the company is awaiting regulatory clarity for its planned DC park, which exceeds 1GW.
Direct PPA and PDP2026 could provide significant upside, with regulatory developments seen as key catalysts. Every additional 100MW of solar or DC capacity could add meaningfully to GULF’s profits and target price—adding THB 150–200 million (for solar) or around THB 1.5 billion (for DC) to annual earnings and THB 0.30–0.40 (for solar) and THB 1.5 per share (for DC), respectively.
KGI maintains its ‘Outperform’ rating on GULF but lowers the 2027 target price to THB 75.00 from THB 78.00 per share, reflecting a reduced ADVANC valuation due to higher-than-expected CAPEX. Despite the sizable earnings base, GULF’s continued expansion in power and digital infrastructure is expected to provide further long-term upside.
