KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote that industrial estate land sales and transfers of WHA Corporation (SET: WHA) in 3Q26 are expected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter at 250 rai and 200 rai, respectively. This brings total land sales for 9M26 to 1,450 rai, an increase of 15% year-on-year, while transfers are at 700 rai, down 48% from the previous year.
A significant 70-75% of 3Q26 land transfers are expected from WHA ESIE 5, which should support a sharp increase in average selling prices, rising 30% quarter-on-quarter to more than THB 5.5 million per rai. This improvement is anticipated to boost the gross margin to approximately 50%, compared to 28.5% in the prior quarter.
WHA projects land sales of about 1,000 rai in 4Q26, including 100 rai in Vietnam, against its full-year target of 2,500 rai. However, its ASP and backlog are still lower than Amata Corporation’s (SET: AMATA) THB 8 million per rai and THB 16.5 billion, respectively.
In its utilities business, WHA Utilities and Power (SET: WHAUP) is expected to report weaker earnings for the third quarter both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter due to a significant drop in water capacity charges to THB 10 million (down from THB 274 million in 3Q25 and THB 57 million in 2Q26). The power segment, however, is projected to stay resilient with THB 324 million in equity income from Gheco-1 and other associated companies. WHAUP’s 3Q26 earnings are forecast at THB 388 million, representing declines of 20% YoY and 27% QoQ.
On the overall earnings front, WHA’s net profit for 3Q26 is forecast at THB 877 million, marking a rebound of 38% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to recovery in the industrial estate segment. This would bring 9M26 net profit to THB 3 billion, down 17.5% from a year ago and reaching 75% of the full-year forecast of THB 4 billion, which is 22% lower YoY.
The fourth quarter is expected to be the year’s strongest, supported by REIT asset transfer gains, a possible major land deal, and a recovery in WHAUP’s performance with an increase in water capacity charges.
KGI maintains its earnings forecasts for 2026-27, an ‘Outperform’ rating, and its sum-of-the-parts target price of THB 5.95 for WHA. A strong earnings recovery is expected in the second half of this year, especially with higher ASPs and margins tied to high-margin estate transfers.
Growth momentum should continue in 2027, driven by the transfer of a 900-rai high-margin plot, potentially boosting gross margins to 50-60% from an expected 40% in 2026. Additionally, the company aims to ramp up operations in Vietnam with two new estates and has recently signed a letter of intent for 80-90 rai of land sales.
