KGI Securities (Thailand) maintained its “Outperform” rating on WHA Utilities and Power Public Company Limited (SET: WHAUP) with a sum-of-the-parts target price of THB 9.30, citing earnings growth prospects and opportunities from data centers and renewable energy, despite an expected quarterly profit decline.
In its third-quarter earnings preview, KGI forecasts a net profit of THB 388 million, down 20% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, including approximately THB 20 million in foreign exchange gains.
Revenue is projected to fall 11.5% YoY and 3.1% QoQ to THB 620 million. The decline primarily reflects water capacity charges dropping to THB 10 million, compared with THB 274 million in 3Q25, despite continued growth in water and power revenue.
Gross margin is expected to narrow to 36% as contributions from high-margin water capacity charges decrease. Equity income from Gheco One IPP and SPP joint ventures is forecast to fall 10% QoQ to THB 324 million amid higher gas prices.
For its nine-month outlook, KGI projects revenue of THB 2.8 billion, up 15% YoY, supported by 13% growth in water sales volume and a 36% increase in solar power revenue. Water capacity charges are expected to remain flat at THB 395 million, while gross and net margins should improve by three and nine percentage points, respectively.
FX gains and other extraordinary items are forecast at THB 220 million in 9M26, against a THB 206 million loss in 9M25. Projected nine-month earnings of THB 1.2 billion would represent 83% of KGI’s full-year forecast, suggesting potential upside to its estimates.
KGI highlighted Thailand’s upcoming PDP 2026, which targets renewable and clean energy sources exceeding 65%, alongside Direct Power Purchase Agreements allowing data centers and other businesses to buy green electricity directly from producers.
WHAUP has signed Direct PPA memoranda of understanding totaling 120 MW with data center customers, with more than 100 MW in the pipeline. Its solar capacity is expected to rise from 205 MW to 542 MW over the next five years.
As the exclusive water and wastewater utility provider across WHA Corporation (SET: WHA)’s 17 industrial estates, WHAUP also stands to benefit from data centers’ water consumption, estimated at 12 – 16 times that of conventional factories.
KGI projects profit growth of 46% in 2026 and 24% in 2027 for WHAUP. The company’s net debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18 times remains below its 2.5-times covenant limit, providing borrowing headroom.
Key risks include unplanned maintenance shutdowns, cost overruns, regulatory changes, and foreign-exchange and interest-rate fluctuations, according to the analyst.
