KResearch Lowers Thailand’s Export Growth to 3.4% in 2022 on Russia-Ukraine War Threats

KResearch trimmed its forecast for Thailand’s exports in 2022 to 3.4 percent from 4.3 percent, citing the threat to global economic growth posed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, if Russia and Ukraine can achieve an agreement sooner than predicted, this will ease economic pressures, allowing exports to grow by 3.7 percent.

Thailand trading is expected to be directly affected slightly by the Russo-Ukraine War since Thailand has relatively little trade value with Russia and Ukraine, only US$3,166 million or accounting for 0.6 percent of the country’s total trade in 2021 (USD2,780 million in trade with Russia and USD386 million with Ukraine). Automobiles and car parts, electrical appliances, rubbers, seafoods, and canned fruits are the principal exports to the two said countries.

Overall, Thailand’s exports could suffer a combined loss of USD600-800 million in 2022 if the Russian-Ukrainian war escalates.