Thai economy sees uptick in 2022 but global recession on the horizon, says IAA

Thailand’s economy is expected to expand by 3.18 percent in 2022, as most economic activity resumed after the situation with the Covid-19 outbreak improved, resulting in the country reopening its borders, according to a survey released on Monday by the Investment Analysts Association.

Estimated GDP growth of 3.18 percent for the second largest economy in Southeast Asia is up slightly from the 3.09 percent growth projected in April’s survey.

According to Sombat Narawutthichai, the secretary-general of the IAA, the recovery of the Thai economy, followed by the improvement of the Covid-19 situation in Thailand and overseas, will all have a favorable impact on the direction of investments throughout the second half of the year.

Looking ahead, however, there are still risks of a global recession caused by factors such as growing prices, the decisions of central banks regarding interest rate hikes, and geopolitical worries.

About 25 percent of respondents believe that the Bank of Thailand will raise the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in the second half of the year, while 37 percent anticipate a 0.50 percentage point hike.

The survey also suggests that investors should focus more on retail, banking, tourism, telecommunications, and healthcare stocks. Favorite stocks are BBL, BEM, CPN, and KBANK.