Calendar Update

Calendar Update : US GDP, EU Inflation & China PMI

This week on economic calendar is still packed with many important to-be-announce numbers and key figures speech schedules. Starting on Monday (28 Aug) Joachim Nagel, the Germany’s central bank (Bundesbank) President and a key voting member of European Central Bank (ECB) to set Euro zone interest rate, will give a speech.

As for the US bond and yield curve, there’ll be US 3 and 6-month bills and 2 and 5-year Treasury Note auction. The rates of these auctions will have an implication on interest rate, bond markets and further US government debt.


On Tuesday (29 Aug), the European Union (EU) will publish its economic forecast, followed by Germany and US Consumer confidence index (GfK Consumer Climate & CB Consumer Confidence, respectively). The two indicators could give a clearer outlook on the future economic situation from the biggest economic driver in their own continent, though GfK is expected at -24.3, almost no change from last month at -24.4 and CB is expected at 116, a slightly lower from last month at 117.

On the same day, the US job vacancies survey (JOLTs Job Openings) will be published. The July survey is expected to be at 9.79 million, an increase from the month before at 9.58 million. Meanwhile, Australia expects a slightly lower to unchanged on their YoY CPI and Building Approvals at 5.2% and 7.7%, respectively, but only the Construction Work Done is expected to drop from 1.8% to 1% QoQ.


On the busiest Wednesday (30 Aug), the US is expected to publish some key economic indicators. The Q2 GDP is expected at 2.4% QoQ, an increase from 2% in the last quarter. Also, the Pending Home Sales (excluding new construction) is expected at -0.1% MoM, from +0.3%.

US ADP Non-farm Employment change is expected to decrease from 324k to 195k MoM, implying less payroll from 400,000 US business clients, which will be confirmed on Nonfarm payroll published in the following two days.

US Crude Oil Inventories from EIA is expected at lesser negative of -2.92 million WoW, from -6.13 million, implying lesser weekly oil demand.

Germany expected their Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.0% YoY, a decrease from 6.2% and flat at 0.3% QoQ, which reflected the continuation of current inflation.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s board member, Toyoaki Nakamura is scheduled to give a speech, while the other diverse background members still split between to increase the stimulus and not to, due to rising cost of prolonged easing policy concerns.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is expected to come in at 49.5, almost no change from the previous 49.3 MoM, which reflected the same level of China manufacturing activities amid ongoing real estate crisis.

Lastly, Russia is expected to publish its Unemployment rate at 3.2%, continuing the down trend from 3.1% last month.


On Thursday (31 Aug), the EU is expected to publish its CPI at 5.1%, a decrease from 5.3% YoY and no change from the -0.1% MoM. The Unemployment rate is also expected to stand at 6.4% MoM. Meanwhile, the member of ECB executive board, Isabel Schnabel is scheduled for her speech on the same day, possibly comment on those numbers.

Meanwhile, US is expected its monthly Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index), another key indicator for inflation excluding energy and food prices, to stand at 0.2% MoM and 4.2% YoY, compared to 4.1% of the previous month.

Lastly, the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims is expected to almost no change at 235k from 230k WoW, measured from those who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time.


Finally, On Friday (1 Sep), US is expected its monthly Unemployment Rate to maintain at 3.5% and monthly Nonfarm Payrolls to decrease from 187k to 170k. Average Hourly Earnings are expected at 0.3%, a decrease from 0.4% MoM. These numbers imply a slightly lower number of non-farm job positions and less pay increase but the same unemployment rate MoM.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is also expected on the same day with 43.5, an increase from 42.6 MoM. The index implies either new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries or inventories have been slightly improved this month.

On the other hand, UK Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) is also expected on the same day with no forecast data published. UK is the second largest mortgage provider. The hot UK housing price in recent years causes some concerns on its real estate market, however, it has been cooled down in recent months.