The economic calendar this week is packed with important to-be-announcements. Starting on Monday (11 Sep), China has already published the monthly M2 Money supply growth at 10.6% YoY, which is as the market expected. It’s trending slightly down from 12.9% since March this year.
China monthly new loans published at $1,360 billion, which was higher than the forecasted $1,200 billion and lower than $345.9 billion of previous month, in recent years, China has new loan seasonally peaked at February, April and July, the rest would usually lower to one fourth or one tenth from the peaks.
Meanwhile, there’ll be the US 3-Year, 6-Month, 3-Month Notes and bills auctions. The latest rates were 4.398%, 5.300% and 5.315%, respectively. If these bond yields are still in reverse as the shorter-term bonds didn’t have a lower rate as it should, that means the bond market still predicts more rate hike would continue.
On Tuesday (12 Sep), OPEC will publish a monthly report and API will publish weekly oil stock. This would give insight into US oil demand and its economy. Also, the same day the US government will publish its budget balance. This will give an outlook on government spending as a part of US GDP.
On the other hand, the UK will publish its average labor earnings and unemployment rate, expected at 8.2% and 4.3% respectively. Meanwhile, UK unemployment rate has been increasing since the lowest level at 3.5% in October last year.
Furthermore, Brazil, India and Spain will publish their Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the same day, which is expected at 4.69%, 7.0% and 2.6% YoY, respectively.
On Wednesday (13 Sep), the US will publish its monthly Core and normal CPI. These indicators measure the inflation that has been cooling down recently, which was expected at 4.3% and 3.6%, compared to their peak at 6.6% in October and 9.1% in July last year, respectively. If the trends continue, there might be a possibility of a rate cut sooner.
The UK will publish its GDP which has been in the range between -1% to +1% recently, and also the trade balance which is the part of GDP that will give an outlook on UK foreign trade.
Meanwhile, Australia will publish its unemployment rate on the same day also, which is expected and stabilized around 3.6% recently.
On Thursday (14 Sep), the EU central bank (ECB) will decide its interest rate and will give a policy statement which will give an insight on the future EU economy. The rate is expected to continue to stand 4.25%.
On the other hand, the FED will publish the balance sheet which will give a view on what the FED has been doing on open market activity. The recently tight policy should continuously decrease the FED balance sheet as the FED sells its assets or pulls out the money from the systems to reduce inflation.
The same day also, there’ll be a publication of Initial jobless claim, US retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI). The last two are leading indicators for consumer spending and inflation, which has swung up in the previous month.
Furthermore, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish its monthly US and world demand and supply estimate of commodities like soybean, sugar, cotton and livestock products as well.
Meanwhile, China will publish its unemployment rate which has been expected to stand around 5.2% recently.
On Friday (15 Sep), there’ll be a scheduled speech from the ECB president, the meeting of the Eurogroup and the publication of EU wage and labor costs.
Various countries will publish their trade balance such as EU and India, while some will publish their CPI such as France and Italy. Meanwhile, the US will publish price index and production like the industrial production and import, export price indices.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commissions (CFTC) of various countries will publish the weekly net position of non-commercial or speculative traders from US, Canada, EU, Swiss, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Russia. This report will give an overview on how much risk there is on each commodity.
Furthermore, Russia would decide its interest rate at the same day as well, expected at the high of 12%. After it has been at 7.5% for 7-months straight a few months ago, while the Russian ruble has been continuously weakening.