Calendar Update 16-20 October, Inflation Data and China GDP

This week’s economic calendar from 16 to 20 October is packed with many price indices which used to gauge the inflation in several countries. However, the China GDP on Tuesday together with US FED FOMC members speaking along the week, would be worth looking forward to.


On Monday (16 Oct), there’ll be a Eurogroup meeting along with the announcement of Eurozone’s August trade balance with no expectation compared to the previous surplus EUR 6.5 billion. Meanwhile, the US will publish the Federal budget balance which expects the deficit at USD 78.6 billion, compared to the previous surplus of USD 89.3 billion.

In addition, FOMC member Patrick Harker scheduled his statement on the same day as Germany’s 12-Month Bubill and Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) meeting minutes.

Other items worth mentioning are China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Germany’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI), Canada’s MoM August Wholesale, New Zealand’s CPIs and South Korea’s trade balance.


On Tuesday (17 Oct), the UK will announce the unemployment rate of August, which was expected at the same as the previous 4.3% along with the 30-year treasury Gilt auction on the same day. Canada will also publish its CPI.

Meanwhile, the US will publish the retail sales and industrial production numbers. In addition, FOMC members John C.Williams and Michelle W.Bowman scheduled their statement the same day as well.

However, the star will be China as it’ll publish its GDP which is expected at 4.4% YoY and 1.0%QoQ compared to the previous 6.3% YoY and 0.8%QoQ, along with the unemployment rate, industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales at the same time.


On Wednesday (18 Oct), the UK will publish its key inflation number, namely, the September CPIs with the expected 6.5% YoY and 0.4% MoM compared to the previous 6.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM along with PPIs and RPI. The Eurozone will also publish the September CPI with the expected 4.3% YoY and 0.3% MoM compared to the previous 5.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM.

Meanwhile, the US housing, MBA 30-year mortgage rate, August foreign net purchases of T-bonds and notes and overall net capital flow data will be published on the same day. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde, FOMC member Patrick T.Harker and Williams will give statements on the same day.

In addition, the US 20-year bond and German 10-year bund will be auctioned on this day as well, while other numbers worth mentioning are Japan’s trade balance, Brazil retail sales, Australia’s unemployment expected at the same as before at 3.7% and Bank of Korea (BoK) interest rate decision expected at the same as the previous 3.5%.


On Thursday (19 Oct), there’ll be publications of the EU’s August current account, Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), New Zealand’s trade balance, Japan’s September national CPIs and China loan prime rate expected to continue to stand at 3.45% and 4.2% for 5-year, respectively.

However, the US will publish few key data, namely, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index and Federal balance sheet. There’s also the scheduled speech from the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, FOMC member Raphael W.Bostic and Harker.


On Friday (20 Oct), there will be some publications of UK and Canada’s retail sales, Germany’s PPI, India’s loan and deposit growth and also Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting minutes.


Lastly, the US weekly mandatory numbers which are scheduled as follows.

On Monday, the US weekly 3- and 6-month treasury bill auctions. These two short-term yields would give insight on how much the bond markets or the big money saver are willing to lend the money to others. The higher short-term rates means the more worries for the long-term lending economy and vice-versa.

On Wednesday, the US EIA oil and gas productions and inventories. These publications would impact the energy commodities markets by a lot, as they indicated the past demand and energy consumption of the US economy.

Thursday, US initial jobless claims, 4- and 8-week treasury bill auctions. The jobless claims indicated the official unemployment rate in the US which is recently used to gauge how much the FED will hike more rate, as the low claims and hot jobs numbers means the economy could handle a higher interest rate.

Friday, the CFTC speculation net position of derivatives trading such as currencies, commodities and futures indices, would be published on the same day as well. These net positions would roughly give a premonition of the direction of these underlying assets.