Calendar Update 30 Oct to 3 Nov, the Rate Decision Week

This week’s economic calendar from 30 October to 3 November is packed with interest rate decisions from major economies, namely the US, UK and Japan along with key economics data.


On Monday (30 Oct), several economies scheduled their announcements as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide its interest rate at the expectation of -0.1%, while Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada (BoC) will give a statement on its economy and monetary policies.

Meanwhile, the EU driver, Germany will publish its Q3 GDP with the expectation of -0.3% QoQ, while the October CPIs is expected at 0.2% QoQ and 4.0% YoY. China will publish its Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) (October) with almost unchanged expectations around 50 to 52.


On Tuesday (31 Oct), the ECB will publish the eurozone’s Q3 GDP with the expectation of 0.2% YoY, a lower than the previous 0.5%, and the inflation indicator, October CPI with the expectation of 3.2% YoY, a significant lower than the previous 4.3%.

In addition, the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence for October, expected to announce at 100.0, a lower than the previous month at 103.0 despite last week’s positive GDP numbers.


On Wednesday (1 Nov), the market expected the US Fed to maintain its interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50%, while the Fed’s FOMC will hold the press conference, giving outlook on US economy, along with other key data announcements, including September JOLTs job opening, October ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP Non-farm employment change.

In addition, Swiss National Bank (SNB) chairman Thomas Jordan scheduled his statement on the same day as well, while Australia will publish September trade balance which is the components of the GDP.


On Thursday (2 Nov), the Bank of England (BoE) will decide its interest rate with the market expectation to stand at 5.25% with 7 vs 2 votes for unchanged. Andrew Bailey, the BoE governor will give a statement and reason along with its committee meeting minutes.

Meanwhile, there will be a publication of the eurozone October manufacturing PMI and US non-farm productivity, Q3 unit labor cost and September factory orders.


On Friday (3 Nov), there will be a publication of September Germany’s trade balance and EU’s unemployment rate that is expected to be unchanged at 6.4%, along with Canada that expected the unemployment rate to be almost unchanged at 5.6% as well.

Meanwhile, October UK S&P global composite PMI is expected to be almost unchanged at 48.6 and US S&P global composite PMI is expected to be slightly higher at 51.0 from 50.2.


Lastly, the US weekly mandatory numbers which are scheduled as follows.

On Monday, the US weekly 3- and 6-month treasury bill auctions.

The short-term yields would give insight on how much the bond markets or the big money saver are willing to lend the money to others. The higher short-term rates mean more worries for the long-term lending economy and vice-versa.

On Wednesday, the US EIA oil and gas productions and inventories.

These publications would impact the energy commodities markets by a lot, as they indicated the past week’s demand and energy consumption of the US economy.

On Thursday, US initial jobless claims along with Fed balance sheet and 4- and 8-week treasury bill auctions.

The jobless claims indicated the official unemployment rate in the US, which is recently used to gauge whether the FED will further hike rate or not, as the low claims and hot jobs numbers means the economy could handle a higher interest rate. Meanwhile, the balance sheet indicates how  tight or loose the Fed open market activity is.

On Friday, the CFTC speculation net positions of derivatives trading, including currencies, commodities and indices futures, which would be published on the same day as well. These net positions would roughly give a premonition of the direction of the underlying assets market.