Analysts Expect to See First BOT Rate Cut in April

On Wednesday, the Bank of Thailand announced the resolution from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with a 5 to 2 vote to maintain the policy rate at 2.50 percent, which led some analysts to conclude that the Bank of Thailand might cut interest rates earlier than expected this year.

Many analysts comprehended the votes differently as the 2 votes that disagreed with the resolution could be the signal that rate cuts could come in the near future.

Nomura stated in its note that it expected the BOT to potentially cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year, starting in April. The firm previously forecasted the cut with 50 basis points but adjusted the number after the central bank announced its decision.

As for Morgan Stanley, the firm expected the BOT to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of 2025. The first rate cut is also expected to be in April.

The central bank also revised down the country’s 2024 GDP growth to 2.5%-3% and forecasted the headline inflation to stabilize at around 1%.