As per an analysis by KGI Securities (KGI), the Thai meat industry may be approaching an inflection point as data suggests the late-stage swine price upcycle is running out of steam.
Domestic swine prices, currently ranging between THB 85–88 per kilogram, are projected to hold steady or edge up slightly over the next several months before weakening as new supply comes online. In Vietnam, a similar trajectory is expected, with the recent surge in pork prices potentially giving way to stabilization or a modest pullback.
Thailand’s second-quarter domestic swine prices averaged THB 86/kg, up 25% from a year earlier and 9% compared to the previous quarter. In Vietnam, pork prices climbed 8% year-on-year and 4% on a quarterly basis, coming in at VND 67,884/kg.
The story is different for poultry, with Thai broiler prices remaining stable at THB 40/kg—a 9% year-on-year decline and a 1% drop quarter-on-quarter—as balanced supply and demand keep the market in check. Export growth for chicken is expected to ease, given last year’s high base.
In contrast to robust meat prices, feed costs have offered some relief. Imported soybean meal prices tumbled 24% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching THB 16.1/kg, while domestic corn hovered at THB 10.85/kg, slightly lower than the previous year.
Abundant supply underpins these lower input costs, and meat producers—who typically keep several months’ feed on hand—are poised to benefit from this environment well into 2025.
Turning to company performance, the analyst noted that the earnings outlook remains nuanced. Meat processors with exposure to pork, such as Betagro (BTG) and Thaifoods Group (TFG), are well-positioned to capitalize on the strong price environment in 2025, before momentum is expected to fade in 2026 as prices soften.
TFG’s expanding retail presence could help buffer some of this decline, while GFPT (GFPT) is projected to see moderate profit growth driven by continued favorable feed prices and a near-term recovery in chicken exports.
Following these, KGI Securities maintains a ‘Neutral’ rating on the food sector, flagging waning swine prices, sluggish poultry export growth, and macroeconomic headwinds. Moreover, recommendations remain ‘Neutral’ for GFPT and TFG, with respective 1H26 target prices of THB 9.70 and THB 5.00 per share.
However, Betagro is rated ‘Underperform’, with a THB 15.70 target price, reflecting its substantial pork exposure and vulnerability to the coming downturn in meat prices. With shares in the sector reflecting recent trends, the analyst suggests investors monitor meat price movements closely for further cues.
