SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC) wrote in its analysis regarding the continued growth of Thailand’s exports in May, especially the export of electronic products. The growth in this sector was supported by the accelerated shipment to the U.S. before the new tariff policy will take effect fully. The U.S. already imposes a 10% universal tariff and special tariff on vehicles, steel and aluminum, but not on most electronic products.
Exports to the U.S. are expanding from 23.8% YoY in April to 35.1% in May, especially the export of the electronic products that increased by 50% as exports of computers and its parts increased by 88.3%. Exports to China and Hong Kong also increased significantly by 28% and 45.2%, respectively. Additionally, 67.4% of Thailand’s total electronic exports went to these three destinations.
Gold is also another primary factor supporting the export as the unwrought gold export increased by 57.1% despite a slowdown in the previous month. Cambodia, Laos, and the United Arab Emirates are the main destinations as 80% of Thailand’s total gold export last month headed there. This reflects the gold demand amidst high risk in the global economy.
As for Thailand’s imports in May, its total value reached USD 29.92 billion, an 18% expansion, ahead of expectation. Imports of capital goods increased by 41.1%, with the shipment from China and Taiwan expanded by 35.3% and 61.7%, respectively. This caused Thailand’s trade surplus this month to reach THB 1.11 billion after facing a trade deficit for two consecutive months.
SCB EIC viewed that Thailand’s exports in the later half of this year would slow down and possibly face contraction. The forecast of 2025’s export was adjusted from -0.4% to -0.1%, while warning about the impact of U.S. trade policies becoming more aggressive and unstable. There is also concern about the scope of U.S. presidential power in imposing import tariffs.
During the first five months of the year, Thailand’s exports grew about 14.9%. SCB EIC pointed out that this is partly due to temporary factors, such as the accelerated export of electronics products, which contributed to overall exports growth by 5.5%. Still, the trend is likely to decline in the future.
The prime supporting factor is the gold export to India that grows abnormally due to tariff loopholes. Still, it is temporary and would slow down as India revised its law in March. Nonetheless, this factor increased Thailand’s overall exports by 2.2% during the first half of this year.
Thailand’s exports in 1Q25 was supported by a low base from last year. Growth is expected to slow down in the second half due to higher base.
Another factor that should be monitored is the rice export that seems to weaken continually due to the decrease of rice price and a drop in trade partners’ demand. Furthermore, Thailand also lost some of the world’s market share back to India as the nation terminated its control policies and began exporting again.
SCB EIC warned that the negative factors from U.S. trade policies may increase. Several Thai products exports to the U.S. could be at risk of facing specific tariffs, especially those from electronics, steel, and vehicle sectors, which largely contribute to exports to the U.S. Moreover, the tension in the Middle East also affects the transport, energy, and global manufacturing capital, adding more pressure to Thailand’s export in the remaining of this year.
