Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) pointed out in its research that there were signs of recovery in Thailand’s tourism sector and the year’s end total could beat its forecast if Chinese arrivals saw an uptick in the second half.
Thailand recorded a 5.09% year-on-year drop in international tourist arrivals between January 1 and July 6, 2025. Malaysia has emerged as the top arrivals to Thailand this year instead of China that follows closely in second place.
The Bank of Thailand has revised its annual forecast for foreign arrivals to 35 million, a 2.5 million drop from its previous forecast. The figure is well-below the 2019 level that saw tourist arrivals close to 40 million.
Still, KKPS noted that in June, Thailand’s foreign tourist arrivals increased 2.48% month-over-month to 2.32 million, with revenue from this sector reaching THB 100 billion, a 2.7% increase from May. However, the number of tourists from China and Europe dropped slightly.
Only a little more than 306,617 Chinese tourists came last month, representing a 1.2% decrease from May and accounted for only 36.6% of the pre-COVID’s arrivals. As for European tourists, the number dropped 5.8% to 345,417.
Despite this, KKPS has noticed a slight improvement as the number of daily inbound flights from China in the first eight days in July increased from 108 to 121. The firm expected that total tourist arrivals would recover to 2.52 million for the month.
Back in April, KKPS estimated that the annual tourist arrival would reach 36.2 million in 2025, but later revised down its forecast due to a drop of tourist arrival from China and some countries in East Asia.
Nonetheless, KKPS added that if the improvement of Chinese arrivals continues, especially in the fourth quarter, the overall outlook could beat its current forecast of 33.6 million by year’s end.
