The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the United States, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, showed that consumer prices rose less than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could move forward with another interest rate cut next week.
Headline CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), slightly below economists’ forecasts of 0.4%, signaling a cooler pace of inflation. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, overall inflation registered 3%, lower than the 3.1% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, though marginally higher than 2.9% in August — marking the fastest annual gain so far this year.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% estimate and the 0.3% increases seen in both July and August. The annual core inflation rate remained steady at 3%, also below expectations of 3.1%.
While overall inflation pressures were subdued, gasoline prices surged 4.1% in September, contributing the largest share to the headline increase. Food prices climbed 0.2%, while overall commodity prices advanced 0.5%.
Notable category movements included:
- New vehicles: up 0.8%
- Shelter costs: up 0.2%, accounting for roughly one-third of the CPI’s weight
- Services excluding shelter: up 0.2%
- Used cars and trucks: down 0.4%
On a yearly basis:
- Energy: up 2.8%, with electricity up 5.1% and natural gas up 11.7%, while gasoline fell 0.5%.
- Food: up 3.1%, led by meat, poultry, fish, and eggs (+5.2%) and nonalcoholic beverages (+5.3%).
- Shelter: up 3.6% YoY, remaining a key driver of inflation.
