China is facing continued pressure on its economy in November as data revealed that growth in consumption, investment, and industrial output all fell short of expectations, while the government tried to manage supply and shore up demand amid a persistent slump in the property sector.
During the eleventh month of 2025, the country’s retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, missing the Reuters median estimate of 2.8% and decelerating from the 2.9% pace seen the previous month. Industrial production grew 4.8%, also falling short of the anticipated 5% and marking the slowest increase since August 2024.
Fixed asset investment—including the property sector—contracted by 2.6% from January to November compared to the same period last year, a steeper drop than the 2.3% decline economists had projected and the sharpest contraction since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, according to Wind Information data.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that consumer sentiment is weighed by the sustained declines in fixed asset investment and falling property prices in recent months. The analyst expects additional fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to be introduced in 1Q26.
Goldman Sachs highlighted weakening auto sales as a critical factor dragging down retail performances alongside a calendar shift in the Singles’ Day shopping festival, which brought forward demand from November into October.
The China Automobile Dealers Association reported that auto retail sales by volume in November dropped 8.1% from a year earlier to 2.23 million vehicles—the first year-on-year drop in three years—amid a pause in local government trade-in subsidies.
Many online retailers extended their promotional campaigns throughout October and up to November 11, marking the longest Singles’ Day period to date. However, sales growth remained weak, with gross merchandise volume rising just 12%, lagging last year’s 20%, according to Syntun data.
Chinese policymakers have pledged additional policy support to stimulate domestic consumption and investment in 2026, with the finance ministry announcing plans to issue ultra-long-term special government bonds to fund projects enhancing national security and to support programs for equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins.
The ministry also committed to increasing its investment budget to help counteract the recent contraction in fixed asset investment.
Meanwhile, analysts remain cautious, noting the absence of significant new stimulus measures. Many believe that targeted policy support alone is unlikely to substantially lift household consumption without visible improvements in employment and wage growth.
