On December 15, the Office of The Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) approved the draft plan for the organisation of the election of members of the House of Representatives (MPs). As proposed by the ECT, the general election is scheduled for Sunday, 8 February 2026, following the Royal Decree dissolving the House of Representatives B.E. 2568 (2025), which took effect on December 12, 2025.
Other key timelines: the ECT set Sunday, February 1, 2026, as the advance voting day, both in and outside constituencies, as well as at polling stations for people with disabilities, incapacitated persons, and the elderly. Applications for advance voting rights (in-constituency, out-of-constituency, and overseas) are to be filed between 20 December 2025 and 5 January 2026. The period for notifying inability to exercise voting rights spans 1–7 February 2026 and 9–15 February 2026.
Candidate application for constituency MPs is open from 27–31 December 2025. Party-list MP applications (only for parties which have already fielded constituency candidates) and party nominations for prime ministerial candidates are open from 28–31 December 2025.
Meanwhile, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET Index) rose 19.30 points, closing at 1,273.40 points (+1.54%) yesterday, with a trading value of THB 33.093 billion. Chaiyaporn Nompitakcharoen, Managing Director of Securities Trading at Bualuang Securities (BLS), said the Thai stock market surged, outperforming most Asian markets. He attributed this to the political catalyst provided by the confirmation of the 8 February 2026 election date, which served as a positive market sentiment.
Watcharaporn Kantaphayao, Economist at BLS, stated that political uncertainty inevitably affects the fiscal mechanism, a key driver of Thailand’s economy. She divided her assessment into two scenarios according to the severity of the policy gap:
Base Case: If the election proceeds between February 1–8, 2026 and a new government is formed within May 2026, the dissolution of Parliament will stall several economic stimulus projects. Government investment spending may drop by 30–40% during the caretaker period, which slows 1Q26 GDP growth temporarily.
However, once the new government is in place, a “Catch-up Quarter” of accelerated budget disbursement is expected in the second half of the year. The 2026 GDP growth forecast remains at 1.6% year-on-year.
Worse Case: If tensions at the Thai-Cambodian border escalate, delaying the election and government formation to late 3Q26, a prolonged policy vacuum would impact both the current and 2027 budget formulation. This would delay private sector investment and economic recovery. In this scenario, GDP for 2026 could grow only 1.2% year-on-year.
Piriyapon Kongvanich, BLS Wealth Research Strategist, maintained a 2026 base-case index target of 1,440 points for the Thai stock market, but cautioned investors about speculative activity before the election.
Historically, Thai equities tend to rise 2–3% within 60 days before elections, particularly domestic-oriented stocks such as banks, retail, finance, and food. However, he noted, this time is different due to structural issues, particularly high household debt, which pressures purchasing power and listed companies’ profit growth, limiting the upside of any pre-election rally.
BLS research showed that over the past 10 years, more than 70% of total returns from Thai equities have come from dividends, while EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth has scarcely expanded, highlighting the importance of selecting quality dividend stocks over merely chasing high-yield stocks regardless of fundamentals.
During 1H26, the market may face pressure from weak economic figures stemming from the policy gap, but this could also be an opportunity to gradually accumulate stocks in anticipation of 2H26 recovery, driven by accelerated budget disbursement before the fiscal year ends.
Thus, with unclear profit growth prospects, BLS recommended a Quality-Selective Strategy, focusing on quality dividend stocks with consistent returns prior to the dividend season (Dec–Feb), stability, and serving as buffers during volatility. The banking sector, due to its undemanding valuation and attractive dividends, was highlighted.
Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited (SET: KTB) was noted for its robust reserves and low Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) against Return on Equity (ROE), while SCB X Public Company Limited (SET: SCB) leads in dividend yields within the sector, matching the “Dividend Play” theme at the start of the year.
This election is not the start of an immediate bull run, but rather a time to select survivor stocks in an evolving market, said BLS.
Adisak Prombun, Head of Securities Research at Beyond Securities, expected a rebound for Thai equities in 2H26 after H1 pressures from political uncertainty and global economic risks, notably the U.S. ‘s tariff hikes.
The main political factor is the scheduled 2025 election, which could be delayed due to Thai-Cambodian border conflicts, potentially preventing residents in affected areas from participating. As the law requires nationwide simultaneous voting, prolonged conflicts could directly affect election management.
Bloomberg forecasts Thai equity EPS to be THB 95.55–97.24 per share in 2026, up from THB 85.49 in 2025, and the P/E ratio dropping close to 13 times, making the market attractive for long-term investment.
Sectors of interest include:
- Power plant sector, benefiting from AI and data center trends: Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (SET: GPSC), B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM), WHA Utilities and Power Public Company Limited (SET: WHAUP).
- Industrial estate sector, especially EEC: WHA Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: WHA), Amata Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: AMATA).
- Digital infrastructure, such as telecommunications towers and fiber infrastructure funds, offering stable cash flows.
