The escalating Middle East conflict has triggered a potential energy shock, casting a shadow over Thailand’s utilities sector. Bualuang Securities’ latest research, published in March 2026, assesses the resilience of Thai power plants against rising oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices. Due to these heightened short-term earnings risks, the sector’s investment rating has been rated at “Neutral.”
A critical factor driving this uncertainty is the surge in domestic power consumption. In early 2026, peak electricity demand exceeded the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand’s (EGAT) forecasts by approximately 5%. This record-breaking demand, combined with Thailand’s heavy reliance on imported LNG as a primary gas source, makes the national grid highly susceptible to global fuel price volatility.
The report evaluates the impact on electricity tariffs across three distinct scenarios. While the base rate currently stands at 3.83 THB per unit, an intensified conflict could push costs to 4.03 THB under a “worse-case” scenario or even 4.52 THB in a “worst-case” scenario. These increases would severely compress the profit margins of Small Power Producers (SPPs), as industrial electricity rates often lag behind the rapid rise in fuel costs, leaving producers to absorb the difference in the interim.
Specific stress tests indicate substantial profit downsides for industry giants. BGRIM (BUY, TP 20 Baht) could face a profit decline ranging from 11% to 69% for fiscal year 2026, while GPSC (Hold, TP 40 Baht) faces a potential drop of 9% to 59%. In contrast, GUNKUL (BUY, TP 3.84) remains notably resilient, with estimates suggesting a potential profit upside of up to 8% even in the worst-case scenario.
Given this volatility, the current investment strategy prioritizes companies with high renewable energy proportions and Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) that allow for efficient fuel cost pass-throughs. The top picks identified are GULF (BUY, TP 76.50 Baht) and GUNKUL. While BGRIM and GPSC face significant margin pressure, their share prices have already declined to levels reflecting a worst-case outlook, which may limit further short-term downside.
