SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC) revealed that the outlook for Thailand’s tourism sector is improving, supported by both international arrivals and domestic travelers.
In 2026, the number of international tourists is expected to reach approximately 34.1 million, a slight increase from the estimated 32.9 million in 2025, although continued pressure persists from the slowdown in Chinese visitors. The recovery of international tourism is partly attributed to government measures aimed at targeting new high-potential markets such as India, Europe, and the Middle East, as well as efforts to restore Chinese tourists’ confidence in safety.
Nevertheless, growth in international tourist arrivals still faces challenges from intensified tourism competition (Tourism War) as many countries worldwide implement measures to attract travelers, cautious spending given the global economic slowdown, and the lack of new attractions in some Thai destinations.
Although the number of international visitors will likely continue to rise as the global economy recovers and Chinese tourists return in greater numbers, competitive pressures in the global tourism market are expected to intensify as well.
For domestic tourism, the number of Thai travelers is projected to grow by about 2% year-on-year, from 277.1 million in 2025 to around 282.6 million in 2026. Continued growth is expected, backed by ongoing government stimulus measures, transport infrastructure development connecting primary and secondary cities, and various promotional campaigns such as sightseeing buses, Mekong River travel routes, and different types of tourist trains.
However, domestic travel growth remains at risk from the fragility of the nation’s economy, which could affect travel decisions and spending. At the same time, outbound travel by Thais is expected to continue rising, thanks to visa waivers and budget overseas travel packages.
The recovery in both international and domestic tourism is having a positive impact on the hotel sector. The nationwide average hotel occupancy rate in 2026 is forecast to be around 73%, slightly up from 72% in 2025, while the average daily room rate nationwide is expected to increase by about 5% after declining in the preceding year. In the coming period, hotel occupancy and room rates should continue to expand in line with the recovery in international arrivals and resilient domestic travel.
Nonetheless, room rates may face pressure due to continued cautious spending by global tourists, impacted by U.S. tax policy, and adjustments in service offerings and pricing to accommodate Thai tourists while international arrivals have not yet fully rebounded.
SCB EIC further notes that, despite clear recovery signals in tourism, the hotel business still faces substantial challenges. These include global and domestic economic uncertainty, intensifying competition, the need for consistent government stimulus, rising hotel supply—especially in key tourist destinations like Phuket and Phang Nga—sustainability pressures from large hotel chains’ policies, online booking platforms, and new EU environmental requirements set to take effect in 2028.
In this context, Thai hotel operators must urgently adjust their strategies to address these challenges, such as targeting high-potential and high-spending tourist segments to reduce dependence on any single market, upgrading service quality and providing valuable guest experiences through technology and locally-connected activities, and maintaining a flexible pricing strategy to stay competitive and drive sustainable long-term growth.
