Saudi Arabia’s exports of crude oil to China are expected to reach their highest level in several years this March. The increase follows a recent move by the kingdom to lower the official price of its primary oil grade for Asian customers to the most competitive level seen since late 2020.
Anonymous sources reported that Saudi Aramco plans to supply between 56 million and 57 million barrels to China next month. Based on Reuters’ data, these levels exceed volumes seen in the past two months and represent the largest monthly total since March 2023. Companies such as PetroChina and Rongsheng Petrochemical are among those that have scheduled higher lifting from Saudi Arabia for March.
The pricing adjustment by Aramco—dropping Arab Light’s official selling price to the lowest point since late 2020—has occurred amid ongoing concerns of an international supply surplus. Although the price decrease was less substantial than some market participants anticipated, the new rates have made Saudi crude more appealing when compared to alternatives offered by regional spot sellers.
Elsewhere in Asia, Indian refiners are set to receive a minimum of 1 million barrels more Saudi crude in March relative to their typical long-term contractual arrangements. This comes after securing at least 2 million barrels in extra supply during February, and amid pressure by the U.S. to curtail Russian oil imports.
Refiners in South Korea and Japan are likewise slated to obtain greater quantities of Saudi oil in March, according to anonymous sources, though precise comparisons to February’s imports—which were at least 9 million barrels above normal—remain unspecified.
In addition to Saudi Arabia, Iraq—OPEC’s second-ranked producer—may raise its oil exports next month as well. Unlike Saudi crude, which is distributed solely through long-term contracts, Iraq markets part of its production on a spot basis, allowing for greater flexibility in destination. For March, Iraq has made an unusually large volume of so-called destination-free cargoes available, a move that may draw heightened interest from buyers seeking adaptable purchase options.
