Thailand’s central bank is anticipated to leave its key interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday. The decision follows better-than-projected GDP growth and subdued inflation, factors that may give the Bank of Thailand (BOT) additional time to assess its next move.
The BOT last reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, setting it at 1.25% during its December 2025 meeting in a unanimous decision. Improved fourth-quarter economic output has lessened immediate pressure for further easing. For the October-December period, Thailand’s gross domestic product expanded 2.5% year over year, propelled by increased domestic consumption and investment.
As a result, the national planning agency upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to a range between 1.5% and 2.5%, revising it higher from the previous estimate of 1.2% to 2.2%. In 2025, the country’s economic output grew by 2.4%. However, the new Thai government believes that economic growth could reach 3% with the right stimulus.
Prospects for stability have also improved on the political front. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party outperformed expectations in recent elections, providing a more secure political environment. Anutin has reaffirmed his commitment to tackling economic challenges and supporting household and job market stability.
On the inflation side, official data showed headline consumer prices declined by 0.66% in January compared with a year earlier, undershooting the anticipated drop of 0.40%. This reading is well below the central bank’s 1% to 3% inflation target.
According to Reuters Poll, the Thai central bank will maintain its rate at 1.25% in the February 2026 meeting. The only cut this year is expected to come in the second quarter with a 25 basis point cut. The reduction could be in June as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its rates by a quarter point in the meeting on 16-17 June. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand will convene its meeting on 24 June.
