Ms. Julie Kozack, the spokesperson for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated on Thursday, March 19, that the IMF is closely monitoring the situation regarding the Iran war and its impact, which has resulted in a disruption of energy production.
She warned that a prolonged period of rising energy prices could lead to higher inflation and slow global economic growth. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has affected the transportation of oil and natural gas, pushing Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.
The IMF has not yet received any official requests for emergency funding assistance, but it remains prepared to support member countries amid ongoing discussions with finance ministers and central bank governors of member countries, as well as various regional institutions.
According to the IMF spokesperson, the impact of the war will depend on the duration, intensity, and extent of the conflict. The IMF plans to include the effects of the war in its updated World Economic Outlook report, scheduled for release in mid-April during the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group.
Kozack noted that oil and gas prices surged by 50% in the past month, with fertilizer shipments having been disrupted. These factors, combined with logistical barriers, have increased the risk of significantly higher food prices, depending on the length and severity of the situation.
She cited the IMF’s rule of thumb: for every 10% increase in energy prices, if the situation persists for about one year, it would result in a 0.4% increase in global inflation and reduce economic output by 0.1% to 0.2%. Should oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for a year, it will have a significant impact on both global inflation and economic output.
The IMF spokesperson also added that central banks should closely monitor whether there are other factors, in addition to energy prices, contributing to rising inflation, and ensure that inflation expectations remain under control.
