Vinit Visessuvanapoom, Director General of the Fiscal Policy Office, serving as spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, announced that Thailand’s economy in 2026 is projected to grow by 2.5%, a slight acceleration from the previous year. Key drivers include consistently strong export performance, robust private sector investment, and private consumption receiving support from government economic policies.
The Ministry of Finance anticipates that in 2026, the Thai economy will expand by 2.5% (forecast range: 2 – 3%), an upward revision from the previous estimate in April 2026 of 1.6%, mainly supported by improved external demand.
Exports, in US dollar terms, are forecast to grow by 12.5%, up from the previous estimate of 6.2%, thanks to stronger demand from major trading partners. Exports have continued to perform well for the first five months of the year, averaging 10.9% growth, particularly among industries recovering in line with global economic cycles.
Meanwhile, imports are expected to grow by 19% in US dollar terms, reflecting increased private sector investment, resulting in higher imports of machinery, equipment, and capital goods, along with higher energy import prices during the second quarter.
Domestic demand remains a robust pillar for economic growth. Private consumption is projected to increase by 2.7%, supported by government measures to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis.
Private investment is anticipated to grow by 9%, supported by continued strong investment in machinery and equipment and increasing investments in projects in targeted industries (New S-Curve) under the Thailand FastPass measure. The resolution of previous constraints has enhanced foreign investor confidence in establishing production bases in Thailand.
Consequently, the total investment value from foreign investors in the first half of 2026 reached THB 187 billion, an increase of 68.3% over the same period last year.
For the public sector, government consumption is projected to grow by 1.5%, and public investment is expected to rise by 3.2%. This is attributed to the timely completion of the FY2027 annual budget, allowing a sustained flow of funds into the economy, especially for large-scale infrastructure projects (Mega Projects) that will boost national competitiveness and encourage further private sector investment.
On the economic stability front, domestic stability is expected to yield an inflation rate of 2.0% per year (forecast range: 1.5% – 2.5%), with the average Dubai crude oil price assumed at $82 per barrel (forecast range: $77 – 87), down from the previous estimate of $91 per barrel.
Regarding external stability, the current account balance is forecast to post a slight deficit of $500 million, or -0.1% of GDP, mainly due to a higher energy trade deficit in the first half of 2026.
Vinit further stated that the Ministry of Finance aims to drive the Thai economy to its full potential, designating 2026 as the “Year of Investment.” Thailand has succeeded in consistently attracting foreign investment through investment incentives, Thailand FastPass mechanisms across government agencies, and business matching facilitated by the Board of Investment (BOI). Thailand’s outstanding infrastructure and its active neutrality stance continue to make it an attractive destination for investors looking to relocate production bases due to geopolitical conflicts.
However, several risks must be closely monitored, including: 1) volatile situation in the Middle East that could further raise energy prices; 2) uncertainties from new protectionist policies following the United States’ temporary tariff measures; and 3) the “Super El Niño” phenomenon that could lead to extreme temperatures and droughts toward the end of the year.
