SET to Reach 1,800 Points by Year-End as Geopolitical Risks Have a Short Term Effect, Says FETCO

The SET Index is expected to reach 1,800 points at year end, despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as historically, geopolitical risks have a short-lived impact and markets always bounce back within a few days, said the FETCO on Monday.

Chairman of Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO) Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn stated that several studies have shown that every war in history has caused the stock market to plummet dramatically, but swiftly rebound. Markets typically reach their bottom three weeks after the event begins, dropping by around 6-8 percent before rebounding to their prior level within three weeks.

However, risks remain as the US and EU allies consider suspending oil imports from Russia, but FETCO says this is unlikely to happen soon due to the need from OPEC agreement first. According to FETCO, if this scenario plays out, the price of oil should not climb too much, allowing investors to ease their concerns.