Market Roundup 14 July 2022

1) Thai stock market overview

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,536.82 points, decreased 9.98 points or 0.65% with a trading value of 61 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market moved in the same direction as global markets, following a decline of oil prices due to a dominance of the energy sector in the SET Index. Meanwhile, investors were allocating to safe assets amid the Fed’s potential rate hike by 100bps to tame inflation.


2) Thailand’s stock investor confidence falls to bearish zone at 64.57 in June

Thailand’s stock investor confidence index fell to 64.57 in June, entering the “bearish zone” for the first time in 11 months and down 23.1% from the previous month, according to a survey released Thursday by the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO).

The June 2022 study showed that investors are still concerned about the Fed’s interest rate hike, which could send the economy into a recession. They are also aware of the rising global inflation and the spread of new Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5.


3) Thai baht at 7-year low as investors shift toward greenback

Thai baht briefly hit 36.49 baht against a dollar in today’s trading session, its lowest since 2015, as the Thai central bank said that there is no plan for an urgent rate meeting amid rising inflation around the world. The next meeting will be on August 10, 2022.

Thai baht cannot rally against the greenback as U.S. red hot inflation in June of 9.1% that beat expectations led analysts into shifting their forecast for the Fed fund rate from a 75bp hike in July to 100bp hike instead.

The Dollar Index rose 0.61% to 108.61 points as of 16:05 BKK Time on July 14, 2022. The index has gained 1.34% in a week, 2.87% in a month and 13.11% so far this year.


4) IMF trims US economic growth to 2.3% amid slowdown of consumer spendings

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its US growth projection for 2022 to 2.3% on Tuesday, less than a month after lowering it to 2.9% in late June in response to recent data indicating a decline in consumer spending.

The Fund also reduced its 2023 real GDP growth outlook to 1.0% from 1.7% in June.


5) EU cuts eurozone growth outlook, sees higher inflation amid Ukraine war

The European Commission slashed the EU’s growth outlook for 2022 and 2023, and revised up the inflation forecast in the midst of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which poses new challenges to the bloc’s economy.

The Commission has revised its inflation forecast for 2022 upwards from 6.1% to 7.6%, reflecting the recent increase in the cost of living.

Inflation for the year was predicted at 6.1% in May, a significant increase from the 3.5% predicted before the invasion of Ukraine.

Additionally, the European Commission anticipates GDP to grow by 2.6% this year, down from its May estimation of 2.7%, and by 1.4% in 2023.