Kaohoon Morning Brief – 13 September 2022

1) FSS expects SET Index to move in limited range after recent rally from international flows

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected SET Index to move in sideways to sideways-up direction within the range of 1,660-1,675 points, slowing down in the short-term after a gain of more than 50 points in the past week from international flows seeking risk assets in response to weaker Dollar Index.

Nevertheless, FSS recommended investors to monitor the U.S. inflation data, which would be announced later today. A higher-than-expected reading could pull equity markets back to correction territory again while the next Fed’s meeting has a high probability of a 75 basis point increase.


2) US’ August CPI likely to slow down, inflation expectations continue to ease

The market expects the US Consumer Price Index for August to slow down for the second straight month to 8.1% YoY after a 8.5% reading for July that came down from 9.10% a month prior.

The data range estimated by analysts and economists is surprisingly narrow to 7.9-8.3% YoY.

Meanwhile, US consumer inflation expectations continued to ease. The median of a 1-year ahead inflation expectations fell from 6.2% to 5.7%. The median of a 3-year ahead inflation expectations fell from 3.2% to 2.8%, according to New York City Fed’s survey.


3) Credit Suisse expects Fed to end rate-hike cycle sooner than expected

The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate hikes sooner than widely expected due to tumbling inflation, according to Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

“Every one of us sees when we go to the gas station that the price of gasoline is down, and oil is down. We see it even with food. So, it really is showing up in the data already. And, that’s a really big potential positive,” Jonathan Golub told CNBC.


4) Thailand’s industrial sentiment index for August rose to 90.5

Thailand’s industrial sentiment index for August came in at 90.5, compared to 89.0 in July. The figure represents a three-straight month increase as economic activities continued to return to normal after the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.

Tourism outlook remains bullish after easing Covid restrictions including the cancellation of Thailand Pass Program and the government’s stimulus package to boost tourism and domestic spending.