Kaohoon Morning Brief – 20 September 2022

1) KSS expects SET Index to challenge 1,640-1,645 resistance level amid uptrend in regional markets

Krungsri Securities (FSS) expected the SET Index to move higher to test the resistance level at 1,640-1,645 points, following the uptrend from regional markets and weaker dollars. Meanwhile, the analyst expected that there should be a buying power in stocks with unique positive drivers.

However, concerns in global recession from accelerating rate hikes of central banks to ease inflation rate, including lowering the risk ahead of Fed’s meeting would pressure the Thai stock market.


2) Odd for November’s Fed rate hike for 75bps rises to 80%

The Federal Reserve’s rate-hike expectations continue to increase into the meeting on Wednesday. The probability for a 100 basis points hike this week declined to 20%, but the odds of a 75bps hike in November after a 100% priced-in 75bps hike this week rose to 80%.

The Fed will meet on September 21, 2022, for monetary review in which the market is expecting the central bank to raise interest rate by 75bps.


3) Bank of America says $80 is the new floor for Brent

The Bank of America expected global oil demand growth should slow further, stating that weaker growth kicks in just as a strong dollar headwind and rising rates are poised to negatively impact oil demand in the coming months.

However, the bank noted that it did not expect a major pullback in oil prices, believing $80/bbl is now the new $60 for Brent crude oil.