Market Roundup 26 September 2022

1) Thai stock market overview

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,621.25 points, decreased 10.46 points or 0.64% with a trading value of 71 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market moved in the same direction as regional markets, pressured by Fed’s rate hike trends, rising bond yield and strong dollar. Fears on US recession also pulled oil prices down.

The analyst expected SET Index to move in sideways trends amid uncertainties from overseas, giving a support level at 1,610-1,615 points and a resistance level at 1,635-1,640 points.


2) August Thai exports grow 7.5%, missing estimates of 7.7%

Thailand’s exports increased 7.5% in August, falling short of the market consensus of 7.7%, after increasing 4.3% the previous month. This latest figure marks the 18th consecutive month of shipment growth, fuelled by robust demand around the world.

Exports in August were THB23,632.7 million, up 7.5% from the same period last year, according to the Finance Ministry on Monday, while exports for the first eight months of this year (Jan – Aug) rose 11.0% to THB196,446.8 million.

Meanwhile, imports in Thailand were THB27,848.1 million, a 21.3% increase over the previous year, bringing the total for the first eight months to THB210,578.5 million, a 21.4% increase on a yearly basis.

This resulted in a THB4,215.4 million trade deficit in August.


3) Economists expect Thai interest rate at 2% by end of 2023

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) will raise its policy rate by another 25 basis points for the second straight time on Wednesday to combat 14-year high inflation, data from a Reuters poll showed.

22 of the 25 economists surveyed expected the Thai central bank to deliver a 25 basis points increase on its benchmark one-day repurchase rate to 1.00% at the meeting on September 28, 2022, while three economists from the survey believed that BOT will go beyond to 50bps level.

BOT Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said earlier this month that the central bank would gradually raise interest rates to protect its recovering economy.

The terminal rate for BOT in 2023 is 2.00%, but the range in forecasts go as high as 2.50%.


4) Italy 10-year bond yields hit 4.42%

Italy 10-year government bond yields briefly hit 4.42% on Monday, the highest level in nine years as the outcome of the election is becoming clearer for the new prime minister.

Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia is on course to becoming Italy’s first female prime minister and the first government since the end of World War 2 to be led by the far-right group.

She is expected to acquire 26.4% of the vote to form a coalition party with Lega, under Matteo Salvini, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and a more minor coalition partner, Noi Moderati.