Kaohoon Morning Brief – 21 November 2022

1) FSS had a bullish view of consumption-related stocks

FSS expected the SET to extend its sideways movement within 1,610-1,630 points. This morning, investors should keep a close eye on Thailand’s 3Q22 GDP. If it is in line or beats estimates, it would provide a catalyst and create confidence in the country’s economic recovery outlook in 4Q22-2023 that it will accelerate. Energy may weigh on the market, in line with the declining crude price outlook due to concerns over slow demand from China. However, FSS had a bullish view of consumption-related stocks due to indirectly higher purchasing power and the easing inflation outlook. The Dollar Index and U.S. bond yields increased modestly as the market waited for FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday night to assess the Fed’s future rate hike outlook.

As a result, the difference between U.S. 10Y and 2Y bond yields widened to over -70 bps, reflecting higher recession risk. FSS viewed the market will extend its sideways-down movement in the short run to build its base.

Also, FSS maintained its mid-to-long-term bullish view, in line with the rising economic outlook. If the SET retreats, it will provide an opportunity to accumulate. In this regard, FSS saw its mid-to-long-term support at 1,580 points (+/-).


2) Malaysia’s Muhyiddin Yassin vows to acquire majority to form parliament

Malaysia’s former premier Muhyiddin Yassin said that he had won support from two political blocs based in the island of Borneo. He intended to form a new government even after a hung parliament situation, while he had not won the required majority.

He said that the support from two regional blocs will push his alliance’s seat tally from 73 to 101, but still short of the required 112 majority.


3) Morgan Stanley says tech layoff not major danger

Morgan Stanley analysts said that broader job markets are not in true danger even after a massive layoff not seen since the beginning of Covid-19 pandemic. According to the figure revealed by Morgan Stanley indicating that tech layoffs since December 2021 only sum 187,000 jobs, which accounted to slightly more than 0.1% of total US payrolls.


4) Trump will not return to Twitter even after being reinstated

The former US President Donald Trump does not plan to return to Twitter even after Elon Musk, the new owner, reinstated Trump’s account that was banned after the January 6, 2021, riot.

“I don’t see any reason for it,” Trump said. The former president said that he would stick with his new platform Truth Social, the app developed by his Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) startup.