Kaohoon Morning Brief – 7 February 2023

1) Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move in sideways within the range of 1,675-1,690 points as the market lacks positive catalyst while being pressured by the odds of the Fed’s rate hikes could go further to 5-5.25% from previously expected of 4.75-5%, resulting in fund outflows from risk assets to greenback.


2) Odds for Fed rate hikes in May and June increased to 75% and 40%

Odds for the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in the next three meetings have increased after the report of job growth that rapidly ramped up significantly in January, while the unemployment rate reached the lowest level in 53 and a half year of 3.4%, indicating a tight labour market.

An increase in March is a lock for 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the odds for a rate hike in May is around 75% and around 40% in June for a quarter percentage point raise in each meeting.


3) CNBC’s Jim Cramer expects a soft landing for U.S. economy

CNBC’s Jim Cramer expected the U.S. Fed to be able to steer the economy into a soft landing.

He told his investors that the only outcome is a soft landing for the economy, which means it’s foolish to sell now since you’ll only end up buying back those same stocks at higher levels in order to get in ahead of the turn in 2024.

Cramer doubled down his view, saying that the market is now in a bull mode.


4) Binance suspends trading with US dollars

Binance said on Monday that it will suspend deposits and withdrawals with the U.S. dollar using a bank account without providing further explanation for the move, while noting that affected customers are being notified directly.

The firm only told CNBC that only 0.01% of its monthly active users leverage USD bank transfers and it is working hard to restart service as soon as possible.