Market Roundup 17 May 2023

1) Thai stock market overview

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,522.74 points, decreased 17.10 points or 1.11% with a trading value of 57 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market finished lower due to concerns over the uncertainties of the new government in Thailand and also pressured by the U.S. debt ceiling that a default could lead to a global crisis. Meanwhile, there are no signs for a technical rebound for the SET Index.


2) Japan’s economy expands faster than expected in 1Q

Japan’s economy expanded faster than anticipated in the first quarter, with annual GDP growth of 1.6%, according to data released on Wednesday, as a rebound in consumption post-Covid diminished global challenges.

After a revised 0.1% drop in the fourth quarter last year, this represented the first quarterly increase in three quarters. It was also significantly higher than the median market projection of 0.7% growth.


3) SET Index is heading to third straight loss, but historical data shows market outperforming in the next 30 days

SET Index, Thailand’s main bourse, fell for the third straight day on Wednesday morning, coming out of the election on Sunday. The index lost 21.51 points or 1.37% in the first two days and another 1.13% in the morning session on Wednesday, sending the index to move around 1,522.39 points. The market has lost 2.49% in two and a half day after the election.

However, tracing back to the previous four elections in Thailand’s history, three out of four times the market rose on the first trading day after the election date. Also, three out of four times that the stock market performs better in the next 30 days, though one that falls out could be arguably due to the month that the global financial crisis started.


4) UBS expects $17 billion financial impact from Credit Suisse takeover

UBS Group AG said that it expects a financial hit of about $17 billion from the takeover of its rival Credit Suisse Group AG as the Swiss biggest bank is preparing to complete the rescue mission.

In the presentation on Wednesday, UBS estimated a negative impact of $13 billion from fair value adjustments of the combined group’s assets and liabilities. Meanwhile, there will be approximately $4 billion in potential litigation and regulatory costs stemming from outflows.

On the other hand, the group expected to book a one-off gain stemming from “negative goodwill” at a value of $34.8 billion by buying Credit Suisse for a small portion of its book value.