Kaohoon Morning Brief – 7 June 2023

1) FSS expects SET Index at 1,520-1,540 without new catalyst to buoy the market

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected the Thai stock market to move within the range of 1,520-1,540 points as the market lacked positive catalysts. The analyst recommended investors to monitor global economic data this week, especially the U.S. CPI for May. The FOMC meeting this month is expected to hold the rate at 5-5.25%.

The market would have a short-term catalyst if the Thai government is formed faster, and the mid-term growth would focus on economic policies.


2) UBS expects one more hike in July and first rate cut in December

UBS has revised its forecast for the U.S. Federal Reserve decisions. The firm expects one more rate hike in July and is now seeing the first rate cut in December, which is later than its previous forecast for a cut in September.

UBS still expects a recession in the US beginning later this year, despite the seemingly teflon nonfarm payroll employment gains.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs cut the probability for a recession in the U.S. to 25% from an upward revision to 35% shortly after Silicon Valley Bank fell.


3) World Bank ups 2023 global growth, but cuts 2024

The World Bank raised its 2023 global growth outlook, but stated that higher interest rates and tighter credit could bite growth in 2024.

Real global GDP is expected to rise 2.1% in 2023, according to the World Bank’s latest forecast, which is up from a 1.7% growth in its previous forecast in January. Still, growth this year would remain well below 3.1% expansion in 2022.

However, the World Bank cut growth in 2024 to 2.4% from 2.7% in January, saying the high interest rates and restrictive credit conditions would reduce business and residential investment.

Growth in 2025 is expected at 3.0%.