Kaohoon Morning Brief – 28 June 2023

1) KSS expects SET Index to fluctuate, pressured by fund outflow and c.bank rate hikes

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to fluctuate within the range of 1,470-1,490 points even with a positive sentiment from regional markets that edged higher. The U.S. has strong economic data, which eased concerns of entering a recession. However, the index would continue to fluctuate due to pressure from fund outflow, Fed and ECB’s rate hike and declining crude oil prices.


2) HSBC expects recession for U.S. later this year

HSBC expects the U.S. to face recession in the fourth quarter of this year, and Europe will follow in 2024, noting that the economy is now in a mild profit recession, while numbers of corporate default started to increase.

HSBC Asset Management expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before the end of this year. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will follow next year.


3) China’s industrial profits continue to fall in first tive months

China’s industrial profits from January to May 2023 shrank 18.8% year-on-year as companies struggle with tight margin from weak demand and slow economic recovery after coming out of zero-Covid policy.

The decrease followed a 20.6% profit fall in the first four months of 2023, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.

Industrial profits have been on a downturn for three consecutive months.