Kaohoon Morning Brief – 7 July 2023

1) FSS expects SET Index to continue being pressured by Thai political issues and Fed’s rate hikes

Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to continue moving in a sideways trend amid negative sentiment in both domestic and international markets. Thailand still has uncertainties regarding political issues, while private sector companies in the U.S. added a whopping 497,000 jobs in June, the highest increase in one year. The strong job market raised investors’ concerns about the Fed’s rate hike later this month.


2) US private payrolls rise 497,000 in June, biggest in a year

US ADP payrolls rose by a whopping 497,000 in June, the biggest increase since July 2022, and also much higher than an estimate of 220,000. The rise was also higher than a downward revision of 267,000 gain in May.

A Labor Department is expected to report an increase by another 240,000 in nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate is expected to slip to 3.6%.


3) Markets expect 94% chance of rate hike in July

The U.S. interest rates forecast is still rising quickly as  the market now gives a 94% chance of a 25 bps rate hike this month. Markets are beginning to price in three rate hikes by the end of this year with a 24.3% chance of another one in September and 6.6% chance of the final one in November, each time by a quarter-point hike.