Market Roundup 15 August 2023

1) Thai stock market overview

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,520.73 points, decreased 14.43 points or 0.94% with a trading value of 48 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market edged lower in the same direction as global markets while also already pricing in earlier positive sentiment over political development. The market faced a sell off after the release of 2Q23 earnings and Bloomberg consensus also cut Thai EPS to THB91 per share.


2) Goldman Sachs expects U.S. Fed to begin rate cuts in 2Q24

Goldman Sachs expected that the U.S. Federal Reserve would start cutting the funds rate in the second quarter of 2024, but warned that there was a serious possibility that rates would remain unchanged if inflation did not moderate quickly enough.

Goldman predicted in its economic analyst report published on Saturday that rates would begin to decline by 25 basis points every quarter beginning in the second quarter next year and stabilize between 3% and 3.25%. This forecast is higher than the FOMC’s median long-term mark of 2.5%.

The investment firm also predicted that year-over-year and annualized core PCE inflation will be less than 3% and 2.5%, respectively.

But Goldman warned that the Fed might be hesitant to lower interest rates since inflation might not fall far enough, and even if it did, robust economic expansion, a tight labor market, and further softening of financial conditions might make a rate decrease look like an unnecessary risk.


3) Russia’s central bank raises interest rates to 12% to halt ruble’s rapid depreciation

Russia’s central bank raised interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% during an emergency meeting on Tuesday to slow the ruble’s swiftly depreciation.

On Monday, President Vladimir Putin’s economic advisor, Maxim Oreshkin, published an opinion piece in the Russian state-owned Tass news agency in which he blamed the falling currency and the acceleration of inflation on “loose monetary policy.” The ruble subsequently fell to a value around 102 per dollar.

In response to the rapid decline of the ruble, the government in Moscow called an emergency meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Tuesday morning, leading the central bank to reconsider its key interest rate, which had been set at 8.5%.


4) Vietnam’s EV maker ‘VinFast’ expects first trading day on US Nasdaq today

Vietnamese leading electric vehicle maker VinFast will kick off its first trading day in the U.S. Nasdaq on Tuesday after the merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC).

VinFast is expected to list and trade on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on Tuesday morning in New York, following the merger with Black Spade Acquisition, which is a U.S.-listed special purpose acquisition company. This is a well-known easier method to enter the U.S. market.

According to the filing in June, the deal values Vietnam’s VinFast at approximately $23 billion.