Kaohoon Morning Brief – 28 September 2023

1) KSS expects energy stocks to rise, but offset by pressure from Fed and US shutdown

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the range of 1,490 – 1,510 points with an expectation for the energy sector to boost the market due to higher oil prices and supply crunch after U.S. crude inventories fell 2.1 million barrels. However, concerns over the Fed maintaining high interest rates to fight inflation and the potential shutdown of the US government by the end of this month would continue to pressure the market.


2) Goldman sees 90% chance of US government shutdown

Goldman Sachs stated that the US government shutdown this year has a tendency to occur for several months and now the American investment bank thinks that the odds have risen to 90%.

The shutdown is likely to last 2-3 weeks and should impact 0.2 percentage point each week in the US 4Q23 GDP growth.

The Congress is still negotiating on the government budget as the opposition stands firm on the demand of further cuts on spending.


3) UBS halted trading as US stepping up probe on loophole for Russian clients

UBS shares dropped as much as 7.9% around mid-Wednesday before being halted following the U.S. Department of Justice reportedly stepped up its probe into Credit Suisse and UBS over suspected compliance failures that led to Russian clients being able to evade sanctions.