Kaohoon Morning Brief – 9 October 2023


Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move in sideways to sideways-down direction within the range of 1,425-1,445 points, pressured by the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas fighters. Meanwhile, the U.S. bond yield remained high at around 4.8% after the non-farm payroll rose to 336k, which was higher than expected. However, the rising oil prices could boost the energy sector to support the market in today’s session.


Crude oil prices jumped 4% on Monday as the escalation of conflict between Israel and Hamas entered the third day. Israel declared a state of war last night as the country faced continuous attack from Palestinian fighters in several areas across the southern part of Israel.

The attack came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to launch a ground invasion of Gaza, saying that he will turn the besieged Palestinian enclave into a deserted island.


The war could lead to a tight supply in the oil market. However, some analysts expected this to be temporary, saying that there should be a sustained reduction in oil supply or transport for the oil prices to remain higher.

In the morning on Monday, the international benchmark Brent crude rose $3.26 or 3.85% to $87.84 a barrel. Meanwhile, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $3.40 or 4.11% to $86.19 a barrel.


Last Friday, the US economy added 336,000 jobs in September, which was way above expectations of 170,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, but was above expectations of 3.7%.

The US economy has now added jobs for an 39 consecutive months.


Odds of a Fed rate hike rose to 44% from 34% after September jobs report and Fed pause expectations have been extended from June to July 2024.