Kaohoon Morning Brief – 19 December 2023

Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the range of 1,385-1,400 points. The market would price in positive sentiment from Fed’s signals for rate cuts next year, rising crude oil prices following Yemen’s Houthi attacks and hope for purchasing of saving funds before the year end. However, the direction of foreign flows that turned negative would pressure SET Index to move in both positive and negative territory today.


German business expectations for December unexpectedly fall for the first time since August this year, dampening hope of a rebound.

Ifo Expectations Index fell to 84.3 in December, which was in the opposite direction of a slight uptick to 85.6 expected by analysts. The figure was also showing a drop from 85.1 in November.

Meanwhile, Ifo Index of Current Assessment also dropped as well.


The Bank of America cited its analytic data, saying that The Santa Claus rally, which represents the price action of the SPX over the last five sessions of December and the first two sessions of January, has a probability of 79% of the time to rise with an average return of 1.66% going back to 1928 into 1929.

The national bank also added that the period from late December Presidential Cycle Year 3 into January Year 4 is also bullish with the SPX up 70% of the time on an average return of 0.90%.