Market Roundup 5 January 2024

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,427.96 points, decreased 6.63 points or 0.46% with a trading value of 51.1 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market traded sideways from a selloff in DELTA and stocks related to electronics parts. Meanwhile, a rise in bond yield stimulated a selloff in tech stocks, which was the reason for Nasdaq Composite to close lower yesterday. Oil prices were still volatile, while there were no new factors to support the price. The analyst estimated the market to trade sideways next week.


Thailand’s December headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted by 0.83% YoY, compared to -0.3% YoY estimated in a Reuters poll. Inflation dropped 0.44% YoY in the previous month, according to the announcement by the commerce ministry on Friday.

Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.58% YoY, compared to a 0.6% rise expected in a Reuters poll.

The Ministry of Commerce expected inflation in Thailand this year to move within the range of -0.3% to 1.7% with an expectation for the economy to expand 2.7-3.7% and crude oil prices around $80-90 a barrel.


Interest rate futures are beginning to shift back in the less dovish direction, following the release of Fed’s minutes from the December meeting on Wednesday that provided little to no indication of when the pivot will come this year.

The markets ended 2023 with a high possibility for six rate cuts in 2024, while there was a small chance to go beyond seven or even eight cuts. However, after the Fed’s minutes on Wednesday and the report of job data yesterday, probability for rate cuts that tops rate hold was halved to three with a chance that it could go up to five to six. Meanwhile, the Fed’s dot plot indicated three cuts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability for a rate cut in March dropped from 70% at the end of 2023 to 60% yesterday.


Inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2.9% in December, jumping from 2.4% a month prior, but still slightly lower than a 3% rise forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

According to the officials, food, alcohol and tobacco were the biggest contributors to an upward swing on prices, while the drag from lower energy prices was softer in December.

Meanwhile, core inflation dropped from 3.6% in November to 3.4% in December, which was in line with the forecast.