Kaohoon Morning Brief – 2 May 2024

Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) stated that the SET Index is expected to hover within the range of 1355-1375 points, with today’s pressure stemming from the upstream energy sector and refineries. This follows a more than 3% drop in the price of crude oil, triggered by a report from the EIA indicating higher-than-expected US crude oil stocks and decreased tensions in the Middle East as Israel and Hamas engaged in ceasefire negotiations.


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the central bank’s upcoming move is unlikely to involve a rate hike. This statement led to a surge in the three major stock indexes, with the Dow rising over 500 points at its peak during the trading session. Following their May meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers maintained interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

Powell reiterated that a rate hike at the June meeting is off the table unless there is compelling evidence showing that current policies are not adequately curbing inflation towards the 2% target. The Federal Reserve is looking for increased confidence in inflation decreasing towards 2%, a goal that has not been met yet, according to Powell.

Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for a cut in July and November after the Fed’s decision.

The Bank of America retained its view for a first rate cut in December on the idea that inflation will remain stickier and slower to come down.

Meanwhile, markets now price only one rate cut for 2024 after the Fed meeting last night, seeing a cut in November, the day after the US presidential elections.