Kaohoon Morning Brief – 27 May 2024

Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) expected Thailand’s SET Index to bounce back this morning, following a positive sentiment from Wall Street after the release of the US Consumer Confidence Index slowing down in April. This has lowered concerns of investors for the US red-hot economy, high inflation and slower rate cuts. MST expected this momentum sentiment should reflect positively to regional markets.


The United States’ national debt has surged to a new peak of $34.6 trillion in April, marking a $1.6 trillion increase since September 2023. Over the past four years, the total US debt has ballooned by 47%, an uptick of $11 trillion. Should the current trend persist, the US debt is projected to double within the span of eight years, jumping from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion by 2025.

If the Federal Reserve opts to maintain its current interest rates, the annual interest expense for the US could hit $1.6 trillion by the close of the year. Consequently, the US government is advocating for lower interest rates as a means to alleviate this mounting financial burden.


As per Bloomberg data, the market is currently factoring in only one interest rate reduction for the entirety of 2024. This is a notable decrease from the two cuts that were being anticipated just ten days earlier, following the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reflecting a 3.4% inflation rate.

The latest development aligns with the recent US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report on Thursday, which indicated that inflation pressures persistently persist. Market expectations have shifted, with five interest rate cuts removed from the equation since January.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expressed a contrasting view on Wednesday, forecasting no reductions in interest rates for the year ahead.