Kaohoon Morning Brief – 14 June 2024

Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move sideways without any positive factors to boost the market, especially when pressured by an overhang in political issues that will be determined by the court next week.

Despite the US PPI coming out lower than expected. Still, global markets saw little change while monitoring the BOJ meeting today.


Citi analysts are forecasting a drop in oil prices, with an expectation of $60 per barrel by 2025, representing a potential decrease of more than 20% compared to current market estimates.

Despite the bearish outlook for oil, Citi anticipates some volatility in the short term, citing potential upside risks related to seasonal factors and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The surplus expected in the global oil market by 2025, despite production cuts by OPEC+, underpins the pessimistic view. Citi recommends that oil producers hedge against potential price drops and advises investors to consider taking bearish positions during any short-term price increases.


The latest data reveals that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits surged to a 10-month peak last week, indicating a slowdown in the labor market and sustaining expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending June 8, marking the highest level since August of the previous year. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted 225,000 claims for the week, with this increase being the third consecutive weekly uptick in claims. This trend has led some economists to express concerns about the labor market showing signs of strain, while others attribute the rise to ongoing volatility associated with the Memorial Day holiday at the end of May.