TFG and GFPT to Benefit from EU-China’s Ban on Brazilian Chicken following HPAI Outbreak

On Monday, the share price of Thaifoods Group Public Company Limited (SET: TFG) at the time of 2:50 PM was at THB 5.20, a THB 0.15 or 2.97% increase with a total trading value of THB 47.55 million.

Meanwhile, the share price of GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT) at the time of 2:50 PM was at THB 9.90, a THB 0.10 or 1.02% increase with a total trading value of 43.73 million.

China and the European Union (EU) have announced the suspension of chicken meat imports from Brazil—the world’s largest poultry exporter—following the detection of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak at a farm in the southern part of the country.

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, this export suspension complies with agreements made with both China and the EU. For China, the suspension will last 60 days, while other countries may limit imports only from the affected region.

The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) noted that China is the biggest importer of Brazilian chicken. So far in 2024, China has imported 562,000 tons, accounting for over 10% of Brazil’s total chicken exports. The EU imported 231,000 tons last year, representing about 4.5% of the total.

The latest HPAI outbreak emerged in the city of Montenegro, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Although this strain is highly pathogenic, the virus cannot be transmitted to humans through consumption of chicken meat or eggs.

However, human infection—primarily from close contact with poultry or contaminated environments—can cause severe symptoms and carries a high mortality rate, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The WHO also states that there is no evidence of easy human-to-human transmission. Brazilian authorities have stated that they have put control and eradication measures in place.

Krungsri Securities, in its analysis, highlighted the export suspension by China and the EU as a positive psychological factor for Thai poultry exporters. There’s an opportunity for Thailand to increase its chicken shipments to both China and Europe, markets traditionally dominated by Brazil.

In 2024, Thailand exported an estimated 110,000 tons of chicken, valued at about 15.5 billion baht, to China—90% of which was chicken feet. This development is generally seen as a positive sentiment for Thai poultry stocks such as GFPT and CPF.