On Friday at 10:20 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP) soared by 7.89% or THB 1.20 to THB 16.40, with a trading value of THB 240.69 million.
DAOL Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on OSP, with a target price of THB 18.00 per share, based on a 16x PER. The outlook remains positive following the recent Opportunity Day, a quarterly event where listed companies present their performance and outlook to investors, with the company’s guidance broadly in line with the analyst’s expectations. Key takeaways are as follows:
- OSP expects total revenue to grow by 2%-5% year-on-year, with domestic beverage sales rising 0-3% year-on-year while personal care and international beverage segments are projected to see double-digit growth.
Gross profit margin (GPM) is forecast to improve year-on-year from the 37.3% seen in 2024, driven by enhanced efficiency and a decrease in raw and packaging material costs, which have been locked in through almost the end of the year.
- For the second quarter of 2025, management expects overall revenue to increase quarter-on-quarter, supported by growth in domestic beverage and personal care sales. However, international revenue is likely to decline quarter-on-quarter. GPM is anticipated to remain elevated.
- The company plans to launch Babi Mild x Butterbear products in the Chinese market during 3Q25, targeting modern trade and online channels.
Following these, DAOL Securities anticipates OSP’s 2Q25 normalized profit will rise year-on-year, supported by a stronger GPM. Profit growth on a quarterly basis is also expected due to increases in domestic beverage and personal care revenues.
The analyst maintains OSP’s net profit forecast for 2025 at THB 3,426 million, an increase of 109% year-on-year, with normalized profit estimated at THB 3,131 million, an increase of 3% year-on-year).
Over the past month, OSP’s share price has remained stable relative to the SET index. The company currently trades at a core PER of 14.6x, which the analyst views as attractive, offering further upside from potential market share gains and better-than-expected GPM.
Similarly, DBS Vickers Securities noted that market share for energy drinks continued to improve, reaching 45% in April 2025, up from 44.8% in the first quarter and 44.5% in December 2024. The gains were largely driven by M-150, whose market share rose from 31% in December 2024 to 31.5% in April 2025.
The company’s management highlighted that M-150 Gold Cap is still performing well in modern trade channels, and while there has been some shift in market share away from traditional retail, this trend is in line with company expectations.
As a result, DBS Vickers Securities has upgraded OSP’s rating from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’ with a new target price of THB 19 per share, based on DCF valuation.
Core profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 6% to reflect a higher gross profit margin, now estimated at 38.8% compared to the previous 37.5%. However, this comes alongside a downward revision of 2025 total sales growth to 1.5%, mainly due to the expected stagnation in domestic energy drink sales, which is now projected at 0% growth, down from the earlier forecast of 3%.
