Kasikorn Securities (KS) anticipates that CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT) will report second-quarter 2025 net profit of THB 2.3 billion. This represents year-on-year growth of 6.6%, but a 12.3% decline compared to the previous quarter, with the drop attributed mainly to seasonal factors.
On an annual basis, improved sales and a reduction in the selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) to revenue ratio supported earnings growth. Net profit for the first half of 2025 accounts for 47% of KS’ full-year forecast of THB 12.2 billion, indicating a sustained positive earnings outlook.
Company data show that same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the wholesale segment was stable in Q2, as strong performance in fresh food sales offset weaker demand for beverages and cooling appliances, impacted by unusually early rainfall. The retail business, meanwhile, saw slightly negative SSSG due to intensifying competition in the non-food segment.
KS estimates total Q2 sales at THB 124 billion, marking a 2.1% increase from a year earlier but a 0.6% decrease from Q1. The overall gross margin is expected at 14.3%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by margin gains in wholesale and a drop in retail margins due to a higher proportion of non-food sales.
SG&A expenses for both wholesale and retail are anticipated to remain well managed, increasing more slowly than sales. The SG&A to revenue ratio is forecast at 13.3%—down 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, but up 0.1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter.
In terms of expansion, CPAXT opened three new Makro EcoPlus branches this quarter—in Phang Nga (Takua Pa), Amnat Charoen, and Nakhon Ratchasima (Choho)—as well as 12 additional Lotus’s Go Fresh outlets. These additions bring its total branch count to 2,572 as of quarter’s end.
Rental and service revenue for Q2 is projected to reach THB 4.6 billion, down 3.8% year-on-year and 2.5% compared to the prior quarter. The occupancy rate for Lotus’s properties is expected to remain stable at 93%.
Looking to the second half of 2025, KS expects CPAXT to derive further benefits from business synergies, with about THB 1.2 billion recognized in the first half—roughly 50% of the full-year target of THB 2.5 billion. Additional synergy realization is anticipated in Q4, supported by higher sales volumes.
KS therefore maintains its full-year profit forecast at THB 12.2 billion, representing 15.9% growth from last year, based on an SSSG assumption of 2%.
The brokerage firm remains constructive on CPAXT’s ability to mitigate economic headwinds through synergies, which should continue to bolster earnings growth in the second half and upholds its ‘Buy’ recommendation for the stock with a target price of THB 29.20 per share.
