Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities (INVX), commented that the short-term outlook for the Thai stock market index is tilted upwards, setting the support range at 1,136–1,138 points and resistance at 1,148–1,150 points. This positive move is primarily buoyed by favorable sentiment across global markets.
However, investors should closely monitor four key domestic developments this week:
1) Thai-Cambodian Border Tensions Easing: Signs of de-escalation are emerging ahead of a meeting of the Joint Border Commission (JBC) scheduled for June 14. Successful negotiations will likely bolster investor confidence.
2) Progress in Thai-US Trade Talks: The United States has accepted five proposals from Thailand, with working-level discussions expected to commence within the next two weeks. This bodes well for the outlook of economic cooperation between the two nations.
3) Domestic Political Developments: Attention will turn to the Supreme Court’s ruling on June 13 in the case involving Thaksin Shinawatra, which may provide clarity to the political landscape and potential Cabinet reshuffles.
4) Pressure from DELTA Shares: DELTA remains a drag on the SET Index following the new calculation methodology, which will cap single stock weights in the SET50/SET100 indices starting July 1.
External factors continue to offer support, especially with signs of easing US-China relations. Upcoming trade discussions at the official level in London have reinvigorated global equity markets.
Meanwhile, domestic fund flows remain tepid, weighed down by legacy Long-Term Equity Fund (LTF) redemptions, and clear rotation into the Thai ESGX is yet to materialize.
INVX recommends speculative buy on “China Play” stocks—those poised to benefit from the US-China trade recovery—such as PTTGC and PTTEP. Additionally, stocks with solid fundamentals and strong earnings outlooks, namely BCH, CPALL, and GULF, are highlighted as attractive choices amid current market volatility.
