Crude oil futures surged as much as 14% in early Asian trading on June 13, 2025, reaching their highest level since early April, following Israeli airstrikes on Iran that reportedly killed a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The strike occurred without U.S. backing, further amplifying geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices, especially the international benchmark Brent crude, spiked as markets reacted to the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The potential for disruption among major producers—Iran, Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Russia—has revived fears of constrained global supply.
This latest surge echoes previous geopolitical shocks that rattled oil markets. During the 2008 financial crisis, Brent crude soared from under $50 per barrel in early 2007 to an all-time high of $143 in mid-2008.
More recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a sharp increase in prices. Brent crude leaped from $96.80 a day before the invasion to a high of $105.80 on the day of the attack, marking a 9.3% jump. Prices continued to climb, peaking at $139.13 intraday on March 7, with the highest closing price of $127.98 recorded the following day. While prices later declined amid concerns over a global slowdown and the impact of sanctions, the initial shock underscored oil’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
Other regional tensions in late 2023, including Israel’s ground operations in Gaza and attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels by Houthi rebels, also lifted oil prices. However, these incidents had a more muted effect on global oil markets compared to the scale of disruption seen in the Russia-Ukraine war.
With Iran vowing retaliation for the airstrikes that killed more than 20 senior commanders, markets are bracing for further escalation. Drawing a parallel to the post-invasion oil rally in 2022, Brent crude could potentially extend its gains for another one to two weeks, depending on how the situation unfolds.
