The Thai stock market opened lower on Monday, June 16, 2025, following rising concerns over the border issues between Thailand and Cambodia that have yet to be solved, and the escalation of the Middle East War between Israel and Iran.
Thailand’s main bourse, SET Index, fell 1% to its support level of 1,110 points at the open on Monday, a crucial support level before hitting 1,100 points.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) stated that the SET Index is expected to trade within a narrow range today, finding resistance at 1,128 and 1,132 points while support is likely at 1,110 and 1,100 points. Investor sentiment is being shaped by a mix of global and domestic factors, with geopolitical developments remaining a dominant theme.
Tensions in the Middle East continue to keep markets on edge, but there have been recent indications that the situation may be stabilizing. Notably, Iran has proposed a ceasefire to Israel, and the United States has confirmed it is actively coordinating with various parties to reduce tensions. Early this morning, U.S. futures were seen moving sideways, signaling caution but not outright pessimism.
Historical data from previous major conflicts—including the first Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014, the escalation in 2022, and last year’s conflict in Gaza—shows that risk assets typically fall an average of 1.2% in the two weeks following the start of hostilities before rebounding. The SET, however, has demonstrated relative resilience, declining only 0.43% on average in those periods.
Oil prices remain a key variable for the Thai market. Should crude prices move sharply higher—specifically, if they rise by every $5 per barrel above the current assumption for Dubai crude at $67.5, with the year-to-date average hovering around $72—a sizable market profit upside of THB 30 billion could materialize. Unless oil prices break decisively above the $90-$95 per barrel threshold, overall market profit expectations are likely to remain intact, protecting against significant downside risks.
On the domestic front, investors are closely following the political landscape, particularly the potential cabinet reshuffle, which continues to inject an element of uncertainty into the outlook. Adding to the cautious mood, this week also marks the implementation of the FTSE index rebalancing for June 2025, expected to trigger outflows of roughly $150 million. This factor could contribute to subdued investment activity in the short term.
Despite these headwinds, the SET appears to have stabilized within a favorable investment band. The current Equity Risk Premium stands at 5.59%, which should help contain downside risk.
In light of these conditions, market participants are advised to concentrate on defensive plays. Sectors such as telecommunications, hospitals, and banks—especially with rising yields—are favored, alongside oil-related shares that could benefit from any further lift in crude prices. For today, key stock recommendations include PTT, BDMS, and GULF.
