As per an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF) is anticipated to record its highest quarterly profit in the second quarter of 2025.
KKPS forecasts CPF’s pre-exceptional profit for 2Q25 at 10.8 billion baht, representing a 26% increase quarter-on-quarter from 8.6 billion baht in 1Q25, and a year-on-year jump of 93% from 5.6 billion baht in 2Q24.
The strong earnings outlook is primarily attributed to rising swine prices and lower feed costs in Thailand and Vietnam. Should the preview prove accurate, CPF’s first-half results would account for approximately 88% of KKPS’ full-year forecast.
Revenue for the second quarter is projected to grow 9% from the previous quarter and 5% year-on-year, while gross margin is seen climbing to 19.5%—marking its highest level since 1Q21.
Key drivers cited include higher swine prices—at 88.3 baht per kilogram in Thailand (+11% QoQ, +31% YoY) and 67,500 VND per kilogram in Vietnam (+3% QoQ, +7% YoY)—mainly due to supply disruptions caused by African Swine Fever (ASF), along with reduced soybean meal prices in both countries.
However, CPF’s China operations are expected to see a drag from lower swine prices at RMB 14.7/kg (-8% QoQ, -9% YoY).
Looking ahead to 3Q25, KKPS anticipates a softer performance relative to the second quarter as swine prices in both Thailand and Vietnam have retreated to levels seen in the first quarter—78 baht/kg and 66,000 VND/kg, respectively—due to weakened domestic consumption during the rainy season and increased supply.
CPF expects domestic broiler prices to remain stable, underpinned by robust export demand and some consumer trade-down triggered by relatively elevated pork prices, while feed costs are anticipated to hold steady. Following these, the third-quarter performance is forecast to mirror levels seen in 1Q25.
In the context of ongoing trade negotiations between Thailand and the U.S., agriculture remains a key issue. CPF reiterated that Thailand is unlikely to open its domestic swine market to U.S. imports, including offal products.
As a result, KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on CPF with a target price of THB 38.00 per share and projects the company’s net profit at 22.02 billion baht for 2025, before moderating to 11.98 billion baht in 2026 and 4.82 billion baht in 2027. The target price represents a 76% upside to the closing price of THB 21.60 per share on 11 July 2025.
