Minor International Public Company Limited (SET: MINT) is expected to post resilient core profit growth in the second quarter of 2025, overcoming headwinds in its Thai hotel operations, according to a research note from Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS).
The brokerage maintains a ‘BUY’ recommendation on MINT, with a price objective of THB 38.00, a 52% upside from a current trading price of THB 25.00. For 2Q25, KKPS anticipates MINT’s core profit will climb 4% year-on-year to THB 3.4 billion, as robust performance in European hotels and reduced interest expenses offset a softer performance in Thailand.
In detail, revenue per available room (RevPAR) for MINT’s European hotels is projected to increase 4% YoY, supported by solid tourism activity on the continent. In contrast, RevPAR for Thai hotels could decline by 5% YoY, reflecting both a slowdown in international arrivals and continued renovation works for several major properties since June. Across all owned and leased hotels, system-wide RevPAR is forecast to slip 2% YoY, largely due to currency effects as the Thai baht strengthened against the euro.
MINT is also set to benefit from its investment in Popmart Thailand, where share income is expected to surge more than twofold during the quarter. Meanwhile, the company’s food business is likely to face headwinds, with same-store sales (SSS) projected to decrease by 1-2% YoY—driven by a 2-3% drop in Thai restaurants and a 7% decline for its outlets in China.
Looking ahead, further reductions in interest expenses are likely in the second half of 2025. Forward bookings suggest that European hotel revenue might contract by 4-6% in July due to a high comparative base from major events like Euro 2024, but should recover to post similar growth in August. Thai hotel revenue is expected to fall by double digits in July and August, as ongoing renovations at key hotels—including Anantara Siam, Riverside, Hua Hin, Layan, Mai Khao and Avani Samui—temporarily reduce capacity. These six hotels accounted for 40-50% of MINT’s Thai hotel revenue in 2024. Most renovations are set to finish by December 2025, positioning MINT to capture increased demand during Thailand’s high tourism season and lift average daily rates (ADR) by about 20%, providing upside for performance into late 2025 and beyond.
Additionally, MINT’s European subsidiary, NH Hotel Group, recently repaid approximately EUR 200 million in debentures and refinanced another EUR 200 million at a more favorable floating rate, steps expected to trim interest costs by roughly THB 100 million each quarter.
In light of renovation challenges, KKPS has reduced its core profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 3-4%. The research house has also shifted its valuation methodology to a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to better reflect long-term growth prospects post-recovery, establishing a 2025 DCF-derived price objective of THB 38.00, down slightly from THB 40.00, and equating to a 24x P/E multiple. Nevertheless, KKP reiterates its bullish stance on MINT, highlighting that the shares currently trade at an attractive 15x 2025E P/E, offering a compelling value proposition for investors.
